Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Mugabe Unlikely to Stand Down...


Cape Point Lighthouse...

Diplomatic and Zimbabwean sources who heard first-hand accounts of the Joint Operations Command meeting of senior military and intelligence officers and party officials on Sunday night said Mr Mugabe favoured immediately declaring himself president again but was persuaded to use the country's electoral commission to keep the opposition from power.

But in an unexpected twist, two senior sources in Mr Mugabe's ZANU-PF last night released their party's projected outcomes, which had the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, ahead on 48.3 per cent, against Mr Mugabe's 43 per cent. That would result in a re-run of the election, with a candidate needing 51 per cent for outright victory.

The atmosphere remained tense across the country yesterday with riot police in armoured carriers deployed in two of Harare's opposition strongholds. The commission continued releasing a trickle of results, but the opposition Movement for Democratic Change said it believed the count was being manipulated.


[...]

A senior diplomat who received accounts from two people privy to the Joint Operations Command meeting said it discussed shutting down the count, or the army declaring martial law on the pretext of defending the country from instability caused by the opposition claiming victory.

"They did not consider conceding," said the diplomat. "We understand Mugabe nearly decided to declare victory. Cooler heads prevailed."


Sydney Morning Herald | Mugabe plots to stay in power


Sunrise, Booi Se Skerm

Mugabe's security cabinet decided on Sunday night not to recognise defeat after the state election commission forewarned the president that he had lost the vote.

MDC officials said the accounts they received of that meeting hours later had the party worried that the government might cancel the election and arrest opposition leaders, or that the military might intervene.

Yesterday, the MDC presidential candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, approached the former army chief, Solomon Mujuru, who is still a powerful figure within the military, to say the MDC is prepared to reassure the security establishment that a transfer of power would not lead to prosecutions for past crimes or a purge.


Guardian | Zimbabwe opposition in talks with military


Realpolitik

Even should Mugabe go, the MDC election campaign — manipulating its external power base and mainstream media in much the same way Ahmed Chalabi and the Bush administration revised reality to suit their deadly purpose in Iraq, will remain guilty of having endangered the lives of perhaps tens of thousands of ordinary Zimbabweans.

Ignoring history and Mugabe's stated intent to remain in office, the MDC has used last weekend's elections to further only its objectives. Like George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Robert Mugabe, and the murdered Saddam Hussein, Morgan Tsvangirai did not become a serious power broker by being a nice guy. He is, after all, a prominent politician from an extremely tough school located in an extremely dangerous neighbourhood.

Whatever the outcome of this election — and Mugabe will not step down lightly, Zimbabwe and its people face extremely tough times. For South Africans or Americans — or any so-called democratic nation to decry Zanu-PF's electoral chicanery is duplicitous at best and potentially lethal at worst. In a corporate world, elections serve as increasingly dubious indicators of sentiments generally held by and favouring those with access to media and money.

No country has survived the globalisation of politics. In 1994, KwaZulu Natal was handed to the IFP by the ANC. In 2000 and 2004, the Bush regime stole the White House. Such perversions of the democratic process automatically disqualify most so-called democrats from pronouncing on the free or fair nature of any election. More, the hypocrisy of our bought-and-paid-for politicians lends great respectability and credence to the recent elections held in Russia and Iran.

Who knows how this will pan out? Certainly not the New York Times or Reuters. I'm betting on Bob not leaving until given an offer he cannot refuse.

The outline of a deal has almost been reached for Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe to step down, opposition sources have told the BBC. They say representatives of Mr Mugabe, military chiefs and the opposition have held meetings chaired by South Africa since Saturday's elections.

The sources say Mr Mugabe is to give an address to the nation but urge caution until the announcement has been made. Zimbabwe and South Africa's governments denied any negotiations or a deal. But the US embassy in Harare said President Mugabe was expected to address the people of Zimbabwe shortly.


BBC | Deal 'close' for Mugabe to leave

An official in Mugabe's ZANU-PF party said the president was prepared to step down after 28 years in power but was still trying to win agreement from the army's chief of staff Constantine Chiwenga. Three European diplomats meanwhile said opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was ready to deliver a press conference to confirm the news.

"He is prepared to step down because he doesn't want to embarrass himself by going to a run-off," the ZANU-PF source said on condition of anonymity. "There is only one person still blocking him, the army chief of staff."

Senior diplomats in the capital Harare meanwhile confirmed that a deal had been done for Mugabe to step aside in favour of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. "Everything indicates that Mugabe will leave power smoothly," said one of the sources.


Sydney Morning Herald | Mugabe ready to step down: sources

Zimbabwe's opposition leader and a government minister have denied reports that a deal has been reached for President Robert Mugabe to step down. Morgan Tsvangirai said he believed his Movement for Democratic Change had won Saturday's election but declined to declare himself the winner.

He said his party would reveal their tally of results on Wednesday. Bright Matonga, Zanu-PF's Deputy Information Minister, also rejected reports of a deal.


BBC | 'No deal' for Mugabe to step down

Yes, well... and we're supposed to rely on these people for serious reportage?