Wednesday, October 01, 2008

The Crayfish Factory


"... salvage as much as possible ..."

As one Wall Street veteran explained to me, "I don't see one penny of that $700 billion ending up helping the broader economy. I see it being used to prop up share prices so the insiders can salvage as much as possible when dumping their shares".

Indeed, the $700 billion is just part of a massive "pump and dump" scheme engineered with the tacit approval of the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Once the banksters have offloaded their fraudulent securities and crappy paper on Uncle Sam, they will do whatever they need to do pad the bottom line and drive their stocks up.

That means they will shovel capital into hard assets, foreign currencies, gold, interest rate swaps, carry trade swindles, and Swiss bank accounts. The notion that they will recapitalize so they can provide loans to US consumers and businesses in a slumping economy is a pipedream.


Mike Whitney | Black Monday?


"History teaches us ..."

Even staunch conservatives with deep roots in Wall Street are alarmed at the possible political effects of the current economic policy. Paul Craig Roberts, former Reagan administration assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury, who is also a former associate editor of The Wall Street Journal editorial page, sounded an economic and political alarm that echoed in the financial canyons around Wall Street when he wrote a column titled "Has Deregulation Sired Fascism?"

"The real issue is whether we, the people, allow powerful interests to use the economic collapse to create an even more unaccountable executive branch," he said during our interview. "History teaches us that it’s easier for government to give us our money back than it is for them to give us back the freedoms and civil liberties government takes."


Roberto Lavato | Economic 9-11: The Shrinking of Political Space


"... creating more money out of thin air ..."

Now we hear about taxpayer protections, about golden parachutes, and about other nuances that hardly cover up the fact that we would be creating more money out of thin air and further devaluing the dollar! The problem is not HOW the government is spending this money; it’s the fact that the government is spending this money.

We don’t have it. We are already nearly $10 trillion in debt, not including unfunded liabilities. We already spend about $1 trillion a year we don’t have on our overseas empire. Now nearly $1 trillion more is somehow supposed to magically appear and solve all our problems!

No — creating more money might delay the inevitable for some well-connected banks on Wall Street, but in a few weeks we will find ourselves right back in this same position, but much poorer.


Rep Ron Paul | Lipstick on a Bailout

"It's crazy. It's like we've lost our moorings."

Former US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill

AFRICOM's Carrier Diplomacy


USS Theodore Roosevelt

"The United States military has become more involved in a range of activities that in the past were perceived to be the exclusive province of civilian agencies and organizations. This has led to concern ... about what's seen as a creeping "militarization" of some aspects of America's foreign policy. This is not an entirely unreasonable sentiment."

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates

Today's launch of United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) sees Carrier Strike Group 2 blockading Cape Town from October 4, 2008 — reinforcing AFRICOM's mission, i.e. "... military operations as directed to promote a stable and secure African environment in support of U.S. foreign policy." [Mission statement May 2008]

Look, I've nothing against the group or its 7,300 complement, off on a six-month deployment to the Mediterranean "...in support of maritime security". I do have issues with them being used as banner ads for AFRICOM's commission — not that the time of their 'visit' and today's initiation of the US's invasion of Africa has been commented on by our dumber-than-deadwood media.

A year to the day after the USS Forest Sherman's visit to Cape Town — following that of NATO task force SNMG1 headed by the Triconderoga-class cruiser USS Normandy (CG60), the docking of the TR (CVN71) support-cruiser USS Monterey (CG61) and several other ships will send a signal my old friend Thomas PM Barnett would be proud to hear:

"The Americans have landed. For real"


Carrier Strike Group 2

And they will have done so in deed rather than — as is usually the case, in word. The strike group includes a 50,000-ton combat support ship, three Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers The Sullivans, Mason, and Nitze, as well as the nuclear attack submarine USS Springfield.

The media’s been silent on the last vessel. Staying out to sea (under cover, so to speak)?

Never mind. There are many more dangerous things hovering offshore. The USS Theodore Roosevelt's Carrier Air Wing Eight consists of strike fighter squadrons VFA-15, VFA-31, VFA-87 and VFA-213; tactical electronics warfare squadron VAQ-141; carrier airborne early warning squadron VAW-124; and helicopter anti-submarine squadron HS-3. That makes some 90 aircraft in all — about as many as we have in the South African Air Force.

Do we really need these people? I mean, what the hell are we doing with our frigates? This Strike Group, armed for Armageddon, is not out to hunt Somali pirates. It's positioning itself for a possible war with Iran.

So the contagion spreads. May the visiting Chilean tall ship Esmeralda restore us to sanity.

"In Africa, where the State Department and USAID are deeply involved in administering a range of major foreign assistance programs, the Defense Department is working to ensure that its new regional command, AFRICOM, supports and complements our civilian-led initiatives. We are pleased that DoD is giving senior leadership positions within AFRICOM to State Department officials, positioning them well to advise the command on appropriate courses of action."

John D. Negroponte

As CNN's Jack Cafferty observed after Sarah Palin's one on one with Katie Couric: "If that doesn't scare the hell out of you, it should."

Note: Three decades after the event, I stumbled on to Steve Dutch's amazing site. It boasts myriad photographs of 1976's Operation Sail, an armada of tall ships and military vessels packed into New York Bay to celebrate the U.S. Bicentennial.

If the bright light beneath those fireworks is Lady Liberty, that was our mooring. Back home, in Soweto and countless other places, schoolkids were being gunned down by the cops. At least 800 were to die.

At one stage during the ceremonial review, I got close enough to Dick Cheney to shoot him. If only I knew then what I now know.

As kids, we had a great time in New York, out-drinking all nationalities and visiting as many parts of Manhattan as possible — including the remarkable tall ships lining the Hudson. In fact, I remember the Dar Parmorza well, having been dragged down to visit it by a drunken Polack in the Marek J. Maybe Elvis mould.

I trust ... nay hope, given global antipathy to the U.S. military, those sailing with Carrier Strike Group 2 find Cape Town as welcoming, warm, and friendly as we found New Yorkers to be some thirty-two years ago.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Process Politics


President Thabo Mbeki

"... we should never become despondent because the weather is bad nor should we turn triumphalist because the sun shines."

Thabo Mbeki | Resignation Speech

Today's resignation of an untold number of Thabo Mbeki's Cabinet Ministers (including Trevor Manuel) and their deputies, the confirmation of Kgalema Motlanthe and Lindiwe Sisulu to the presidency and deputy presidency respectively, and Mbeki's approach to the Constitutional Court to join the NPA's appeal and clear his name indicate battles for the heart and soul of the ANC are far from over.

The series of recent events is coalescing to a war of attrition that will ultimately resurrect, we hope, the spirit of the ANC's founders. (There was a time when 'transparency' meant something. It was practiced rather than abused.)

First, on Mbeki's ousting, Manuel stated his intention to remain Minister of Finance. For some dubious reason — in a world where neoliberal economics is being turned on its head, this mattered greatly to our economists and investors, he changed his mind. That he — and his deputy Jabu Moleketi — tendered his resignation, against his stated intent and however temporarily, is important. He sent a clear message to the Zuma camp that, as the world's longest-serving finance minister, he was less than happy with the treatment meted out to his president, with whom he has a close working relationship.

Secondly, we know Manuel is not favoured by the Zuma Gang (or the increasingly malignant coterie of SACP members driving Zuma), but he does respect Kgalema Motlanthe, an old-school socialist. His resignation therefore affords the incoming president the chance to invite him to resume his duties or, under direction from the NEC, to fill his position with an incumbent of its choosing.

Thirdly, while Judge Chris Nicholson did not cause this upheaval, he was the trigger that precipitated its overt events. The split in the ANC goes back to The Arms Deal and, before that, to the adoption of GEAR. To gauge the damage done to the party, and most will give Motlanthe their backing (the anger among voters in the Western, Eastern, and Northern Capes at Mbeki's treatment is palpable — that Zuma is a Zulu who found favour in a kwaZulu-Natal court has far-reaching, albeit politically incorrect or inadmissible repercussions), we need to work our way back through the week's events.

Should Mbeki succeed in his case — and there is no reason why the Constitutional Court should not overturn the unsubstantiated and unwarranted political ramblings of a judge o'erleaping his ambition — straying from the matter at hand to display an alarming lack of judicial independence in a vain attempt to steer the course of national events, the way will be open for the NPA to appeal Nicholson's ruling, state its case and reinstitute charges against Zuma.


Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu

Fourthly, my feelings against a Zuma presidency derive only partly from a desire to see justice done. Should his day in court be denied, Zuma cannot command the respect due the presidential office. My chief concern, however, is that Zuma represents that which is corrupt in the ANC. A populist in the Shenge mold, he is in it for himself. JZ's personal ambition, denigrating that office, is to be president and he will crush anybody preventing him doing so. Whereas Mandela was pushed to office by his actions and the people, Mbeki was groomed by leadership for a position that might perhaps not been of his choosing.

Allegations that Mbeki and departing Cabinet members put themselves before the country are spurious at best, ignoring decades of self-sacrifice. Those who remain loyal to Zuma (I'm sure he's pleased Ivy Matsepe Casaburri and Manto Tshabalala-Msimang chose to remain aboard) are for the most part careerists and opportunists.

Finally, reports indicate Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka being unhappy Thabo Mbeki refused to accept her resignation Sunday. His acceptance of it and the resignations of a third of his cabinet today speaks volumes. We now know Mbeki, who moved house in the days following Nicholson's judgement, saw this coming and crafted his exit to counter the machinations of the careerists.

He has exposed the vacuum left by his demise and his Cabinet's exit. The ANC might have many members, but it does not have that many able to step in and take up the reins of government. In short, Mbeki exposed the propensity of the many who, sharing Nicholson's lack of discernment, tend to overly blur the already hazy distinction between party and state. That achieved, there is a need for the soon-to-be President Motlanthe to be afforded as much support and space as he needs to restore stability to a country rocked to its foundations by unbridled ambition and greed.

When it comes to blurring borders, by the way, the archbishop is an exception. He is able, and allowed, to cook up a killer potjie of church, state and party without contradiction. He is, when all is said and done, a private person beholden to nobody but himself.

All in all, today was a good day on the political front. I'd be keen to hear whether it was deemed such by Pallo, Cronin, Blade, Ramaphosa, Sexwale and others for whom I once held great respect. This is, after all, only the end of the beginning.

"Our country deserves better. The way of retribution leads to a banana republic."

Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu | Tutu 'deeply disturbed' by ANC

Monday, September 22, 2008

The Last President



Fellow South Africans ...

I have no doubt that you are aware of the announcement made yesterday by the National Executive Committee of the ANC with regard to the position of the President of the Republic.

Accordingly, I would like to take this opportunity to inform the nation that today I handed a letter to the Speaker of the National Assembly, the Honourable Baleka Mbete, to tender my resignation from the high position of President of the Republic of South Africa, effective from the day that will be determined by the National Assembly.

I have been a loyal member of the African National Congress for 52 years. I remain a member of the ANC and therefore respect its decisions. It is for this reason that I have taken the decision to resign as President of the Republic, following the decision of the National Executive Committee of the ANC.

I would like sincerely to thank the nation and the ANC for having given me the opportunity to serve in public office during the last 14 years as the Deputy President and President of South Africa.

This service has at all times been based on the vision, the principles and values that have guided the ANC as it prosecuted a difficult and dangerous struggle in the decades before the attainment of our freedom in 1994.

Among other things, the vision, principles and values of the ANC teach the cadres of this movement life-long lessons that inform us that wherever we are and whatever we do we should ensure that our actions contribute to the attainment of a free and just society, the upliftment of all our people, and the development of a South Africa that belongs to all who live in it.

This is the vision of a South Africa that is democratic, non-racial, non-sexist and prosperous; a country in which all the people enjoy a better life. ...


President Thabo Mbeki [transcript]



As expected, Thabo Mbeki relinquished the office of president at a time of his choosing, in a manner befitting a head of state, using a language unmistakeably his own. Many have congratulated the ANC on the dignity with which Mbeki's ouster was handled. The dignity belongs to the man, not the chaotic remnants of the party that turned on him. His moral integrity intact, Mbeki is now well-placed to answer a vexed question beloved of journalists, i.e. "What happens after Mandela?" (WHAM)

A rough country rooted in patriarchy, we need elder statesmen and, in the months and years to come, as the dust and acrimony settle, many will question Kgalema Motlanthe's or Jacob Zuma's actions, asking "What has Mbeki to say of the matter?"

Yes, our journalists are naive. These past two weeks, it has been perversely amusing watching coverage of the beginning of the end of capitalism as we know it. Variously stunned or elated by money markets battered by natural and bogus forces, consensus was that the president's resignation would have little or no economic impact. Fools. Yes, we all remember railing at Mbeki's intransigence on AIDS, Zimbabwe, xenophobia, etc. but we too quickly forget that he has presided over our most-prolonged period of economic growth.

I reckon quite a few politicians were watching the ZARand take a beating today — hedging their bets.

Thabo Mbeki is a quiet man of few words. A tireless worker, he took his mandate seriously and expected South Africans to do the same. Elected to office, he saw little need for populism, eschewing fireside chats for negotiation and action, most frequently elsewhere and in relative obscurity. Discrete diplomacy was his talent and he was damned good at it.

Despite evidence to the contrary (many crossed Thabo and few survived), opportunists insisted his unassuming but aloof nature — painted 'paranoid' or 'conspiratorial' — to be the chink in his armor. Sooner or later, they believed (or in MotoMouth Malema's case, boasted), they would take him down.

They weren't able to. Thabo Mbeki is not a man to hang around where he is not wanted. By the time the rot had reached the ANC's NEC and NWC, he had probably assessed and come to terms with his and South Africa's future and was fully prepared to pull off a magnificent exit. His address to the nation, bluntly rebutting recent allegations levelled at him by the courts, comprised a simple statement: "Follow me if you can."

The goons and ghouls ready to push Speaker Baleka Mbete-Kgositsile in to warm Zuma's coveted throne were cautioned by the level-headed leaders left to what was once a proud movement. Any overt rush to insinuate Zuma into the presidency would be disastrous. Given international reaction to Zuma's coup d'etat (comparisons with Margaret Thatcher, John Major, Tony Blair, etc are odious — the ANC enjoys a 70 percent share of the vote, virtually all politics takes place within the party, and we are more a one-party state than a democracy), there's a good chance Kgalema Motlanthe will take over as president.

Virtually unknown abroad and infinitely better qualified than Zuma for the post, Motlanthe could do far worse than improve the presidency's and South Africa's image over the next seven months. He will have to do so mindful of Zuma's close proximity to his back and greatly increased pressure on the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) not to reinstitute charges of racketeering and 700 cases of fraud against the ANC's leader.

Moreover, he might have a Zuma minder at his side. Should Zuma's former PA, Housing Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, get the nod as Deputy President, Motlanthe might find it as difficult to exercise his will as did Mbeki.

But that's next week's news. Thabo Mbeki steps down on Thursday and his demeanor to now suggests that, like all good things, time will look on his presidency as being inextricably linked to that which we have lived through; some of the best of times. Many dislike Mbeki, not least the international financial media. They'd do well to reflect on some of their own shortcomings.

I've not heard Nelson Mandela speak on this calamity, but I doubt it phases him. And I doubt he'll resent handing Mbeki the mantle of elder statesman. The boy the old troika felt was not ready for the job appears to have outgrown his peers.

Mbeki saw Coriolanus as a revolutionary role model who was prepared to go to war with his own people to defend the nation's principles. In the end, Coriolanus is exiled because of his unwillingness to publicly parade after returning from a successful campaign.

Mr. Gevisser suggested that Mbeki saw his own future in Coriolanus. "The person who does good, and does it honestly, must expect to be overpowered by forces of evil," he told Gevisser during a 1999 interview. "But it would be incorrect not to do good just because you know death is coming."


Christian Science Monitor | The Fall of Africa's Shakespearian Figure

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Do not go gently ...


Promise at dawn ...

The ANC is big on redeployment. Disciplined cadres, heeding the movement's call to serve where they are most needed will, at a ringtone or the drop of a hat, take on a completely different role if asked to do so. Hence, in the tradition of those who've gone before him, Mbeki's shrewd decision to go quietly.

I'm no fan of the DA, but I do respect Helen Zille. In light of today's events, her article of last week might seem irrelevant. It's not and is worth quoting at length.

Since Judge Chris Nicholson ruled in his favour last Friday, Jacob Zuma has suddenly become a staunch supporter of the courts' role in promoting constitutional democracy.

On Monday, he told an audience that, "Our faith in the judiciary has...been given a further boost by the ruling...", and that the "judgment has re-emphasised the independence of the judiciary and the critical role it plays in interpreting our Constitution...".

Most importantly, Zuma claimed, the verdict "opened the eyes of the nation to the critical task at hand, to...protect our democratic institutions and prevent their abuse to further political agendas".

It is all very well for Zuma to have made these remarks after the Pietermaritzburg High Court's ruling, since the judgment went his way. Beforehand, however, he showed little inclination to contradict or restrain those of his supporters who had openly intimidated the judiciary and threatened to unleash a wave of violence if he lost his case. One of the unintended consequences of the verdict is that Zuma's supporters may well believe their strategy worked.

Zuma's double-dealing reflects the "lie in the soul", to use Plato's term, of the new ANC leadership cabal elected at Polokwane: its misguided belief that the ANC is more important than the Constitution.

When constitutional institutions happen to come down on the side of its leaders, the ANC is happy to talk the language of constitutionalism and proclaim its commitment to the rule of law. When it feels thwarted by those institutions, the ANC reverts to revolutionary war-talk; it brands them "counter-revolutionary" enemies of the people, and elevates the rule of war over the rule of law.



From the cave ...

A week before judgment was passed by the High Court, some of Zuma's backers protested outside courts in KwaZulu-Natal . They carried banners stating: "We shall take arms if need be to support [the] ANC President". Others burnt tyres outside police stations, and threw stones at police officers.

Neither Zuma nor the party he leads unequivocally condemned these actions. That is because the new crop of ANC leaders has only a tenuous attachment to the rule of law.

We have seen it in what former ANC MP Kader Asmal calls the "militarisation of our political discourse" - statements by senior ANC officials calling on people to "prepare for war", "kill for Zuma" and "fight to take over the streets".

ANC Youth League President Julius Malema specialises in this sort of inflammatory rhetoric. Before the High Court passed judgment, he pledged: "We'll never hand over our President to jail without a fight. We're going to fight...Any force that tries to block our way, we will eliminate. We are on a mission here. We will crush you".

ANC Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe also made warlike threats against the judiciary before the High Court ruled. He labelled Constitutional Court judges "counter-revolutionaries" and said that "when the...judges pounce on our President we should be ready at that point in time [because] our revolution is in danger [and] we must declare to defend it till the end".

Malema and Mantashe's pronouncements, and countless others by senior ANC leaders, formed part of a systematic campaign of intimidation against the judiciary over the months that Zuma appeared in court.

The reasons for the campaign are not hard to find: If the judiciary and the Constitution stand in the way of the personal interests of the ANC President; if they contradict decisions taken by the party; and if they frustrate the party's drive for absolute power, then the ANC is ready to attack the judiciary and jettison the Constitution.

That is why Zuma's recent utterances about the judiciary and other constitutional institutions need to be taken with a pinch of salt. After all, this is the same man who argues that "the ANC is more important than even the Constitution of the country".



The writing on the wall ...

However, if Zuma is serious about the rule of law, the constitutional mandate of the courts, the independence of the judiciary, and the political neutrality of other democratic institutions, he must match his words with deeds.

Firstly, he must accept the decision by the NPA to appeal the High Court's ruling, and instruct his party to do the same. ANC spokesperson Jessie Duarte has called the NPA's move "cynical and ill-considered". Cosatu's KwaZulu-Natal Secretary has described it as "a declaration of war on our people".

It is hypocritical of the ANC and its alliance partners to praise Judge Nicholson's ruling and then to lambaste the NPA's decision to appeal it. The NPA is fully within its rights to appeal the verdict - that is the due process of law - and Zuma has himself had recourse to the appeals mechanism on several occasions during his trial.

Moreover, if there is a prima facie case against Zuma, the NPA is legally bound to explore every legal avenue to ensure justice is done. That is what the rule of law requires, and this is what the Nicholson judgment also emphasised.

Secondly, as ANC President, Zuma must abandon his party's cadre deployment policy. In deploying cadres to supposedly independent state institutions, the ANC has subordinated these institutions to its own political agenda. Once factionalism became rife within the ruling party, it was inevitable that cadres would use the institutions they led to fight battles on behalf of their political masters and persecute their political opponents.


Why would Zuma want an independent person as the National Director of Public Prosecutions when he is facing allegations of 783 counts of bribery over 10 years involving R4,2-million? Zuma has done everything to avoid his day in court in order to gain the power of the Presidency. If he does become President, it is likely that he - more so than Thabo Mbeki - will abuse the office to protect and enrich himself and his clique.

Helen Zille | Time to discard cadre deployment

Umm... yeah, life's not all a bummer. Those saddened by David Foster Wallace's suicide can take heart. Frank Paynter points to an obituary Wallace might have enjoyed.

Zuma ousts Mbeki in brutal coup d'etat


Lame ducks and other animals ...

The law of unintended consequences? I think not. Thank you, Nicholson J.

Arsehole. You and Zuma both. You've trashed our democracy, screwed all South Africans, and turned our Constitution on its head. Worse, you've gutted the ANC by allowing Zuma and his thugs to betray the Freedom Charter and the legacies of Mandela, Sisulu, Tambo, Lithuli et al.

To hell with Zuma, Malema, Mantashe, Vavi and their fellow travellers. They're worth nothing until they've been mandated by the people and I doubt the electorate would back them in a popular vote. (No, Polokwane was not democracy in action and you know it. Lists are manipulated and votes are bought. Ultimately, the voice of the average branch member is not heard. I attended our first nominations conference and I voted for several hundred people on behalf of my branch.)

More, I've no doubt the average South African will feel enormous anger at what's been done; no matter one's feelings (or lack thereof) for Mbeki. I've had many differences with the man, but he was the leader of the ANC millions elected to power in 1999 and 2004. He was my president and he had four months to serve.

Now this. This is not the way things are done in the ANC. This is not the action of the 'disciplined' movement I joined in the days before democratic rule. This is not the spirit or legacy — nor, I assume, the desire — of Nelson Mandela. This is not what we voted for. In short, this is not the ANC that has done this. The ANC, the ghosts of whom may be felt and heard six feet in the country of the Eastern Cape, are the people of this country.

They are — as is so frequently pointed out, the single mother surviving on a char's wage in a shack in Khayalitsha, the child who attends school in a classroom vandalized by thieves, the skilled assembly line worker putting together the car exported to Australia, the fatwalleted, coke-snorting trader on the floor of the JSE, the HIV-positive woman beaten and raped by rogue cops...

Etcetera. Leadership purports to represent them but, in truth, it can only hope to do so. Today, corrupt beyond measure and the law, I doubt it even wishes to.

But all that's beside the point. Mbeki will survive and we will survive — at great cost. The point remains Nicholson's dumb High Court judgement handed down last Friday.

Funny how, in a country that prides itself on an "independent" judiciary, it was the unwarranted political opinion of a High Court judge in Pietermaritzburg that brought about this travesty.

Jacob Zuma, and all who sail in him, is not my president. Come 2009, you will not find me inside or immediately outside a polling station anywhere in South Africa.

Couldn't help but make me feel ashamed to live in a land | Where justice is a game.

Bob Dylan | Hurricane

Thursday, September 18, 2008

For the birds...


Bird hide ...

Too now, ornithology has not counted as one of my hobbies. Sunday afternoon, it was cold, wet and windy. The Dutch Boy popped in and I thought, my having spent Saturday down at the Point, we'd settle down to addressing the state of the nation over some tea and that weird shit he smokes.

No such luck. "We're going to Rondevlei," he advised me. Now, I'd promised to accompany the Dutch Boy on a bird-watching expedition at some stage, but I had Clifton, summer, and a Niek Hockx-type photo shoot in mind. It would make for a wonderful photographic essay.


Birdshide revisited ... the TV series

Rondevlei's one of the few pieces of wetland we have left on the Cape Flats. Stuck at the arse-end of Grassy Park, it's a surprisingly secluded, small and quiet stretch of reeds and water populated by myriad birds and a family of hippopotami. Acclimatised to the wind and rain, we discovered most birds had done a duck and were skulking in the reeds. The Dutch Boy carries a book, but he doesn't need it. I've no idea what the hell we saw out there, but I do know the reserve is home to every bird type found on the Cape Peninsula.

Again, unfortunately, bird-watching is one of those pastimes ideally suited to an SLR camera. So it was back to making do with the trusty old Canon S3. Except that "making do" doesn't work too well with sacred and glossy Ibises blown to hell and gone on a howling north wind among clouds the colour of a graveyard.


African Darter ...

But we try and, for the ludicrously low price of admission to the reserve, we visited each hide and I got a feel for the place — the hides are along a path not more than two kilometres long. I'm not sure what the bird above is. It's an "African something-or-other" frequently confused with a cormorant. It's not a cormorant. It's an "African something-or-other".

Ornithologists less qualified than I do not know this.

Come a quiet, windless, sunlit dawn, I'm going back down there to take some pictures of the pelicans, herons, spoonbills, egrets, terns, kingfishers, dabchiks, and the countless small birds we glimpsed flitting about. Rondevlei's much like Cape Point — just a lot closer to home.

There's something about birdsong blown by the wind through the long, dry reeds ... I'll find out what it is.

Cluck cluck cluck ....


Fire Sale in Progress ...

I hate to say I told you so ...

Well, actually no, I don't. I quite enjoy it. I've been sitting watching this ticker for two evenings now — watching the U.S. economy tank so obviously even the mainstream media has been unable to perpetuate the placatory "business as usual" bullshit spouted by Helicopter Ben and Goldman Sachs old boy Hank Paulson.

Watching a potential financial Armageddon unfold (The Great Unravelling as Paul Krugman called it) is way better than watching TV.

The manner in which the thin blue line, representing millions of shares and untold millions of bucks, has defended the $100 barrier has been quite heroic. Kinda like Mel Gibson in The Patriot. Then again, I would expect nothing less of those paid so handsomely to defend conscienceless cash-hungry criminals whose shares — worth $250 a short while back, are now worth ...

... well, nothing really. Half a trillion dollars have gone missing in recent weeks.

It's like watching Blackwater at work; fiscal mercenaries doing their damndest to beat back a terrible truth, asserting to the end that complex derivatives based on bad marketing constituted sound economic practice. Moreover, it's evident (in the sterling job being done to protect the psychologically important Ben Franklin) that more is at work at 85 Broad Street than the collective will of the world's central banks and a free market.

I see the all-too-apparent hand of the Plunge Protection Team transforming this bloodbath into the globalisation of fat-cat debt. Mind you, the U.S. off-shored its debt years ago. China's covering most of it. Perhaps that should be the 'globalisation of poverty'. Dark forces loom large in our present and future. Like AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Sterns and, yes, Merrill Lynch and a host of equally vile corporates that have profited hugely off the giant Ponzi scheme referred to as The Global Economy, Goldman Sachs will not be "... allowed to fail."

The global taxpayer, i.e. the salaried schmuck, you and I, will pay for its survival.

So, while it's well and good for me to get a kick out of seeing the sky turn dark with chickens coming home to roost — I'm aware that all I'm allowed is five minutes of fun. Afterwards, all I'll have is the grindstone and the knowledge that I told you so.

And that's worth far less than what I'd need to pay for a slice of Goldman Sachs which, in the time it's taken for me to knock this out, has had another $10 kicked out of it.

Mike Whitney (and, it must be admitted, several others) called this years ago and has been writing up a storm ever since. Did the mainstream media listen to him? Did the economists?

Nah ... Now they have to get out there and get a life.

Footloose ...



... or legless

Sticking with the 'bird' metaphor, I spotted this over at Niek's. Good thing too. Congratulations to all our Paralympians. After bombing out of the Beijing Olympics, South Africa's other athletes took flight from the Bird's Nest to take gold to its current heady heights.

Note: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley made it through the day, bouyed by news that short-sellers are about to get short shrift from the law. (Haven't we heard that one before?) The former dipped to $85.88 but is now riding high at around $120 and the latter, having scraped $11.70, has rocketed to $24.22. Tomorrow promises another volatile day on The Street.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Justice Serviced


"... this cancer that is devouring the body politic ..."

The court can hardly be unaware of the other dark mutterings emanating from the applicant that if he goes down others will follow him. Like a blinded Samson he threatens to make sure the temple collapses with him. The impression created is that the applicant has knowledge he will disclose if he is faced with conviction and sentence.

Nicholson J in Zuma JG vs National Director of Public Prosecutions

Sentletse Diakanyo's piece, Judge Nicholson leaves President Mbeki with no clothes on is the most level-headed and thought-provoking analysis I've read of Judge Chris Nicholson's setting aside, for procedural reasons, the case against Jacob Zuma. Diakanyo's detractors are legion but, as I always say in my courtroom, "Fuck 'em."

They obviously haven't read the judgement or are too dumb to realise the extent of the good judge's casuistry and slander of President Thabo Mbeki by inference and insinuation. Some excerpts below...
"The titanic political struggle between the applicant and the President is no concern of the court unless it impacts on issues to be decided in this application. The rivalry of the applicant and the President is hardly open to question and the polarization of the country into opposing camps before and after Polokwane is well known."

"At first blush a decision not to prosecute the Deputy President of the country appears to be as a favour to the second to highest ranking politician in the country. The applicant denies this and puts quite a different slant on the objective. He says it was all part of a political agenda that had as its objective the favouring of President Mbeki in his quest for a further term of office as ANC President. Those are allegations that the respondent seeks to strike out of the record. Is there any evidence of this?"

"The applicant maintains that the ultimate objective of the strategy was to prosecute Shaik and, when he was convicted, fire the applicant. ... So the applicant maintains that he was the big fish — if one were to continue this dubious metaphor — as the deputy president of the country and rival of the President in the race for the presidency of the ANC."

"The applicant does not suggest that the President was guilty of any corruption but suggests that the President is in possession of sufficient knowledge to clear the applicant." ... "The meetings with the Director-General in the Presidency could not, therefore, have been about the President’s involvement. Nor is there any suggestion that any crimes in connection with the arms deal were committed in the office of the President. The ongoing meetings could only relate to the complicity of the present applicant. These consultations with the office of the Presidency on the implied ongoing basis from February 2006 are also cause for concern given the constitutional imperative of independence."

"At the level of the most plausible inference, in the absence of any other competing one, it must be inferred that there was again political interference at the very time Mr Mpshe was contemplating charging the applicant. Mr Pikoli does not deal with the allegation that the issuing of the warrants against Selebi was not palatable to the President but the decision to prosecute the applicant was."

"The applicant states in his founding affidavit that after all these proceedings he and those who wished him to occupy a leadership role in the ANC ‘were concerned about the criminal charges being re-launched at all and moreover being launched at a critical time in the political process’. He goes further and suggests that this was a stratagem to cloak him in the guise of an accused at the critical moments in the political process and so hamper his election as ANC President. There does seem to be merit in that contention. I am therefore not inclined to strike out these allegations."

"The timing of the indictment by Mr Mpshe on 28 December 2007, after the President suffered a political defeat at Polokwane was most unfortunate. This factor, together with the suspension of Mr Pikoli, who was supposed to be independent and immune from executive interference, persuade me that the most plausible inference is that the baleful political influence was continuing. If the NDPP is to be totally independent and perform his functions without fear and favour he should not be liable to suspension by the executive at any given moment."

"It seems to me that in terms of the law, more especially emanating from the Constitution, there is responsibility attributable to the President and his cabinet for what Mr Maduna did. This would, of necessity, also apply to what Ms Mabandla did. I am therefore not convinced that the applicant was incorrect in averring political meddling in his prosecution."

"The court has gained the impression that all the machinations to which I have alluded form part of some great political contest or game. For years the applicant is under threat of prosecution for serious corruption and yet never brought to trial. There is a ring of the works of Kafka about this. In addition I have mentioned the applicant’s threats of disclosure should he go down."
If the good judge's takedown of Mbeki — for there seems to be merit in the contention that it is a takedown, was good enough for the ANC, why should it not be good enough for me?


"We will crush you ..."

I've not the time to write of this now, so Diakanyo's piece struck me as extraordinarily good fortune — especially in light of the ANC stating that Mbeki will "be pushed on (to) his sword if he can’t fall on his sword".
It would be logical to assume that the ANC, given this judgment and its unsavoury findings on the conduct of President Mbeki, may pass a motion of no confidence and seek to remove him from office. This move would be consistent with the decision taken by President Mbeki to relieve Zuma of his duties as deputy president of the country in 2005 following judgment on the criminal case involving Shabir Shaik.

However, such a move by the ANC would be ill-advised and inconsistent with Judge Nicholson’s pronouncement that a judgment in a criminal case against one party is not evidence against persons who were not parties to the proceedings. Therefore, matters raised in this particular judgment should not be used against those who were not party to the court proceedings, including the president.

The above pronouncement is evidence of the number of absurdities in the judgment passed by Judge Nicholson. Based on nonsensical inferences and no concrete evidence to support his claims, the judge concluded it seems improbable that President Mbeki could not have been party to the so-called political mechanisations that bedeviled the prosecution of Jacob Zuma from the onset. Judge Nicholson has certainly been mischievous for repeating what he was critical of, by finding President Mbeki in absentia, guilty of political interference in the prosecution of Zuma and undermining the independence of the NPA. [...]

In proving these "facts" the Judge made his own assumptions and relied on countless references to newspaper articles, statements and comments by made by certain individuals under no oath. The judge used personal opinions, without considering their possibility of bias or factualness, in making a determination of fact in his judgment. This is a dangerous thing for a judge of the High Court to resort to in proving a case against persons no party to the court proceedings; persons who were never afforded the opportunity to make representations on allegations relating to their conduct.

The judgment by Judge Nicholson on persons who were not given a chance to defend themselves in a court of law is “unfair and unjust”. Nothing contained in this judgment on question of political interference and violation of the independence of the NPA is a matter of fact, but pure assumptions that have always been the fuel in this conflagration of allegations of political conspiracy. The judge was reckless and irresponsible to have even entertained these nonsensical allegations, which Jacob Zuma had been unable to prove.


Sentletse Diakanyo | Judge Nicholson leaves President Mbeki with no clothes on
As for Zapiro? Well, what can one say that he does not?

"He [Malema] can insult me as I have insulted him and Zuma, no problem, but when he says 'we will shoot and kill you if you continue to write these things', that is a completely different order. That sounds like a real threat — the sound of those words is genuinely threatening".

Asked whether he was contemplating action, Shapiro said: "I'd be interested in speaking to people who know the legal stuff better than I do."

However, he would prefer for ANC leaders to really understand political satire and criticism.


Independent | Zapiro furious

Afterthoughts


A layman's reading of Judge Nicholson's judgment engenders confidence in its scope, detail, and studied application of the law. However, given the oft-conflicting nature of the law and justice, it has its downside, ultimately coming off as something of a Curate's Egg, a hurriedly written result of justice denied rather than justice served.

Had the good judge more time, he might well have written a more nuanced judgment wherein whatever bullshit is contained therein would have a better chance of baffling brains.

As it stands, there are too many paradoxes deriving from both Nicholson's sometimes apparent chosen adherence to the letter of the law and his, at other times, tortuously contrived arguments to fit the law to suit the judgment or deliver a political message, i.e. Thabo's to blame. Nicholson's juristic elasticity lends the judgment to differing interpretations and, for this reason — and informed individual responses to it, makes it a "must read".

To my uninformed mind, our arbiter and dispenser of justice has applied his legal mind to a wide range of jurisprudence and factors contributing to an assessment of the justness or otherwise of the manner in which charges were brought against Jacob Zuma, and his judgment is framed by the politics of the past ten years as well as his selectively careful definition of the law as it applied then and now.

However, in the interest of balance, reaching back mindfully to all related past events calls for an equally careful and mindful assessment of the wide implications of any finding, i.e. will justice be served? In judging the case as he did, Nicholson J appears to have missed the mark.

South Africa remains a young democracy governed by a party prone to generating legislation it cannot manage or execute. Our politicians are, to put it mildly, callow in qualification and cannot be presumed to be fully aware of the deep and delicate nature of their responsibilities. As a result, politics and impartiality are antithetical to each other. A political appointee to the office of National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP), charged with impartiality by law, cannot but be or behave as a political appointee.

The National Prosecuting Authority forms part of the state's executive arm and is subject to all that affects legislative and executive organs of government. To demand of the NDPP an impartiality — in law rather than spirit — of a type enjoyed by those ensconced in an independent judiciary subject to its own checks and balances, stretches credulity.

"Fear", "favour", and "prejudice" are, when all is said and done, highly subjective terms.

The DNPP can only be as impartial as his office allows him to be. In this sense, the law (the Attorney-General Act and the Criminal Procedure Act) — rather than any Director of Public Prosecutions, provincial or national, must be found wanting.

More, the president is at liberty to hire or fire the NDPP and that liberty is not, as far as I know, contingent only on the DPP's partiality or lack thereof. Constrained by and serving the law and the Constitution, the president felt it necessary to fire two and hire three NDPPs during the time Zuma stood to be prosecuted for alleged criminality. That Ngcuka and Pikoli, their reputations intact, were ousted for political reasons probably goes without saying. Theirs is, when all is said and done, a political office.

Given the uncertainty of their positions, I find Nicholson's repudiation of the NDPPs' close, consultative relationships and consultations with the president and his ministers of justice to be somewhat disingenuous.

More, the judgment has less to do with the administration of prosecutorial proceedings than it does with an unrelated, seemingly contrived Machiavellian plot on the part of the president. That this plot supposedly stretches back some ten years and has yet to be shown to have any substance (Zuma has certainly tried to lend it some) seems of little consequence to the judge. He adheres to its purported reality, even in contradiction.

Where he finds the NDPP to be impartial, he finds for Zuma that the president and his ministers were manipulating events. Where he finds the NDPP to be in collusion with the ministers, he assents to Zuma's argument that the president was pulling their strings. In essence, given the impartiality demanded by Nicholson J and accepting that the NDPP is not allowed a position similar to that afforded Schrödinger’s cat, a prosecution of Jacob Zuma is well nigh impossible.

Quoting Judge Brandeis, Nicholson J has delivered a finding worthy of Judge Scalia. For as long as government is involved in the prosecutorial process, it seems Jacob Zuma will have his way.

Then again, my and Sentletse's ill-informed readings of Judge Nicholson's judgment probably leave much to be desired. Even so, surely we (and thousands of others) cannot both be pulling this stuff off the top of our heads. This appears to be a judgment in dire need of leave to appeal.

Guy Berger writes in the Daily Dispatch: "While the Zuma camp has indeed threatened the justice system, that has not been its only approach. Zuma himself has shown some respect for the system by using its legal channels to contest his prosecution."

I disagree. Strategy employs many tactics — especially when you and I are paying for it. As Judge Nicholson might opine: The findings of earlier courts was not palatable to the ANC President but Nicholson J's decision to not prosecute the applicant was.

And here's an excellent op-ed by Michael Morris:

The cause of democracy has not been served by Nicholson. Certainly, the incoming regime will be extremely grateful for this judgment, for it lets them wholly off the hook.

If Nicholson sought to defend the judiciary and judicial system against current political interference, he should not have left it, as Zapiro has so presciently portrayed it, still spreadeagled on the ground, wide open to further assault in the future.

Instead, Nicholson's judgment has eschewed the real act of historical courage, of rising to the political and historical moment.

And we, the populace — who do really care about the vision we struggled for under apartheid and which was held up by the Mandela era — are left to face the consequences.


Independent | Judge has 'left system open to future abuse'

Considered judgement


A week down the line, the ANC's NEC is deliberating the South African president's future. The jury will, it's reported, return its verdict late tonight or tomorrow morning. During the week, James Myburgh of politicsweb applied his not inconsiderable mind to the question of Judge Chris Nicholson's High Court ruling in favour of our soon-to-be president, Jacob G. Zuma. The result is A Trojan Horse judgment?, an essay dissecting the minutiae and implications of Nicholson's judgement. It is an excellent piece of journalism. Myburgh contends:
For all his talk about the need to insulate the NPA from political meddling the Nicholson judgment is likely, in hard political terms, to have the opposite effect. ... It is in the interests of the corrupt elements in both the Zuma and Mbeki camps for the circle of impunity to be rejoined. Nicholson's attack on the credibility of the NPA has greatly weakened the organisation, and made it more (not less) open to political attack and interference. It has also struck a huge blow against the professionals who, against extraordinary odds, have tried to ensure that not even the top ANC leadership are above the law.
Driving home this afternoon, I listened to former Judge Willem Heath, the highly respected former head of the Scorpions' predecessor, the Heath Commission, slam the NPA for considering requesting leave to appeal Nicholson's extraordinarily 'political' judgement. A commenter, unfavourably disposed to Myburgh's analysis of the court's finding, makes much of Heath backing Nicholson's judgement. The commenter should bear in mind that Willem Heath is a former judge. He has, for four years and by his stated admission, been paid to advise Mr. J. G. Zuma.

Many thanks to surfer, film-maker, freelance socio-political commentator and all-round good guy Hugh du Toit for the link to James's article.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Palin – McCain Blow It


Awaiting the Russians in Atlanta ...

The response of smart Democrats to Palin will not be to diminish her but to treat her as a serious contender. In doing so, they will get beyond the expectations game and on to the vital dialogue about whether a Republican ticket that — whether Palin knows it or not — adheres to the Bush doctrine and just about every other failed policy and wrongheaded strategy of a president whose approval rating is about twenty point below the level that will be required to elect the McCain-Palin ticket come November.

The Nation | Palin: "You Can’t Blink!" And She Didn't

Crap.

If Palin did not blink, McCain did in nominating her. The Palin—McCain ticket is in trouble. Would you have been appointed mayor of your one-horse town on such an interview? Or such?

I doubt it.

We knew political office in the U.S. had ceased to be relevant the moment Schwarzenegger's name came up for the governorship of California. Surprisingly, the Terminator hasn't done too badly, but Jane Swift — doing a boat job on her own party, confirmed all fears a couple of days ago.

These people should be sweeping the streets.

Palin: You have to be wired in a way of being so committed to the mission, the mission that we’re on, reform of this country, and victory in the war.

"Victory in the war." God help us (that's no quote). This is no "expectations game" and Palin, tense, nervous and over-coached for a minor interview, has already cocked up. Call a spade a spade, for Christ's sake. A tactical maneuver by McCain to revitalize his flagging campaign gave him a bump. He and the world now have to pay for his and his running mate's incompetence.

This woman is dangerously ignorant.

Gibson: What insight into Russian actions particularly in the last couple weeks does the proximity of the state give you?

Palin: They're our next door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska.


It seems Alaska is an island. I doubt Palin's to-now limited vision of Russia is the type of insight Gibson was questioning. Nor this:

Palin: That’s a repeat of Abraham Lincoln’s words, when he said, first he suggested, never presume to know what God’s will is, and I would never presume to know God’s will or to speak god’s (sic) words, but what Abraham Lincoln had said, and that’s a repeat in my comments, was, let us not pray that God is on our side, in a war, or any other time. But let us pray that we are on God’s side.

As Joe Garofoli asks: What Lincoln Quote Is Palin Referring to?

I do not care if Sarah Palin is going to "get better at this". She is an ignorant backwoods boor. Millions have died since she and her ilk visited Hell on Earth eight years ago and she remains ignorant of their affliction.

Gibson: Do you agree with the Bush doctrine?

Palin: In what respect, Charlie?

Ho ho ho ... what follows obviously didn't feature in the speech writers' and policy advisers' playbook. They didn't think it necessary to inform the woman who goes moose hunting with Jesus of the Bush Doctrine, a heinous code now subscribed to by every self-respecting genocidal dictator, tinpot or otherwise...

Look, we know the Americans were humiliated by Russia. The Latvians laughed in Dick Cheney's face. Sorry, that should be Lithuania. Or the Ukraine. Or some fucking frigid place where the locals prise potatoes from the tundra, get drunk on vodka, and screw themselves silly through each and every sub-zero year.

Unfortunately, global derision of the U.S. will not prevent the Palin—McCain combo indulging their predilection for shooting first and asking questions later.

Like "Where was that?"

Or "What is the difference between 'prevention' and 'preemption'?"

Or "Who says the Iraqis didn't do it?"

The Nation redeems itself:
"After an uncomfortably long moment of silence, which should have viewers conjuring Dan Quayle's potato, Palin asks, 'In what respect Charlie?'" ... "That said, I worry the peanut gallery is misreading the Bush doctrine and Palin's ignorant response to Gibson. The central fact is that coherence, clarity and rationality were not, in fact, what sold the Bush doctrine in the first place (they succeeded by deliberately confusing a preemptive war with a preventive war)."
As does Palin.

Selected by presidential nominee John McCain — exercising his abysmal lack of good judgement.

Put bluntly, in some of her answers, she made Dan Quayle look like Henry Kissinger. That doesn’t make her a bad person. It doesn’t make her unintelligent. But it does make her unqualified for high office, and it calls into far more serious question the judgment of John McCain. The selection of a running mate was the first major decision McCain had to make as a nominee, and he blew it.

Jay Bookman | Making Dan Quayle look good

A commenter adds: "This ABC interview made 'American Idol' contestants look qualified for national office! It is very sad."

It is indeed. I foresee forebear Ike returning, possibly as a hurricane, to visit his wrath on his people.

GOP at prayer
Clutching at straws: the GOP at prayer ...

The mainstream media now seem to realise just how embarrassing this is. Palin's as dumb as a donkey and twice as thick as a post. Thing is, it's not her fault — McCain's to blame for highlighting her unreadiness for adult life. I started my first post on Palin thus:
Pity the Dems. Ready to fight an election, fielding a candidate equal to Bill Clinton or JFK, and having delivered a convention to rival the Beijing opening and closing ceremonies, they learn the rich folk at the RNC decided to give this one a miss; leaving it to the world's longest self-serving POW and a story worthy of the National Enquirer to perpetuate the sham past a hastily curtailed nomination.
Sarah Palin was either a last, desperate gamble on McCain's part, or she was procured to do what losing Veep nominees do best, i.e. take the fall.

Either way, her inevitable humiliation — the woman's a global laughing stock, was probably cynically foreseen. I'd like to honour her willingness to die for her cause, but blithely falling on one's sword for a bunch of racketeering oilmen and death-dealing war criminals is not, in my book, an act worth honouring.

My sympathy for Palin lasted only as long as it took me to remember that it was Palin who had insisted, at the top of the interview, that she's ready to lead the country on a moment's notice. Asked whether she had ever been outside the U.S. before her recent trip to the Middle East, she answered, "Canada. Mexico." Asked what heads of state she had dealt with, she referenced all those trade delegations that came to Alaska looking to do some business.

When the interview turned to Iraq and Iran, Palin's innocence of diplomatic nuance, not to mention global politics, was something she couldn't dance around. We're America, she said, we don't have to put up with those uppity Eye-ranians.


Bloomberg | Clueless Palin Peddles Cliches Under Gibson's Glare

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Suspending Reality ...


As they would have it ...

Zdenek P. Bazant and Mathieu Verdure: Mechanics of Progressive Collapse
FEMA: World Trade Center Building Performance Study
911-Commission: The 9/11 Commission Report
NIST: Final Report on the Collapse of World Trade Center Building 7
NIST: Final Reports of the Federal Building and Fire Investigation of the World Trade Center Disaster

An international poll released this week by the Project on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) found that outside the United States, many are skeptical that al Qaeda was really responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks.

Sixteen thousand people in 17 countries — allies and adversaries in Asia, Europe, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East — were asked the open-ended question: "Who do you think was behind the 9/11 attacks?"

On average, fewer than half of all respondents said al Qaeda (although there was significant variation between countries and regions). Fifteen percent said the United States government itself was responsible for the attacks, 7 percent cited Israel, and fully 1 in 4 said they just didn't know.


Joshua Holland | Less Than Half the World Believes al Qaeda Was Behind 9/11 Attack